Quantile Comparison
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1 Introduction
The Quantile Comparison Chart is a comparative chart based on quantile graphs. It is used to compare the price performance of the current cycle and past cycles in the quantile graph, so as to discover the consistent laws of the Bitcoin cycle.
We can find in this chart that in the quantile graph of the current cycle, the lowest/highest price of each cycle is within the quantile graph interval, thus verifying the consistency of the Bitcoin cycle.
2 Definitions
2.1 Functional Definition
The Quantile Cycle Comparison Chart is an analytical tool that verifies the consistency of market cycles by comparing the price quantile distributions of Bitcoin's current cycle with historical cycles. Its core values include:
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✅ Identify the regularity of price extreme points (lowest/highest points) within the quantile interval
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✅ Verify the similarity of price fluctuation patterns in different cycles
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✅ Assist in judging the stage of the current cycle
2.2 Core Insight
"The price extreme points of each Bitcoin cycle stably fall within the historical quantile interval, proving that there are significant cyclical laws in the market."
3 Technical Specifications
3.1 Cycle Definition
| Cycle Name | Time Range | Color Code |
| Comparison Cycle 1 | 2010-12-29 - 2015-01-13 | #EF5350 |
| Comparison Cycle 2 | 2015-01-13 - 2018-12-15 | #FF9800 |
| Comparison Cycle 3 | 2018-12-15 - 2022-11-21 | #26A69A |
| Current Cycle | 2022-11-21 - Present | Black |
3.2 Chart Elements
| Component | Display Rules |
| X-axis | Current cycle timeline (date) |
| Y-axis | Current cycle price (logarithmic coordinate recommended) |
| Data Line | Current cycle: Solid line (black) |
| Comparison cycles: Translucent dashed lines (colored according to 3.1) | |
| Labels | Current cycle date + price + quantile percentile |
| Hidden | Specific price values of historical cycles |
4 Typical Application Scenarios
4.1 Cycle Verification
When the current cycle price touches:
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Lower limit interval → Verify whether it coincides with the historical bear market bottom probability interval
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Upper limit interval → Verify whether it coincides with the historical bull market top probability interval
4.2 Anomaly Detection
If the current price deviates from the historical quantile interval by more than 2σ, a cycle anomaly warning is triggered