1 Introduction
The Bull Market Cycle Comparison Chart is based on the Bull-Bear Cycle Chart. It is used to more meticulously compare the performance of bull markets in various cycles and provide a theoretical foundation for cycle models.
2 Definition of the Bull Market Cycle Comparison Chart
I. Basic Definition of a Bull Market
Bull Market: The complete upward range from the lowest point of the previous cycle to the next highest price point
Principles for judging a bull market cycle:
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Not directly linked to the halving date
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Not redefined due to mid-term slumps / rebounds
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Structural judgment is based solely on "clearly defined historical highs"
Example: The COVID-19 crash on March 12, 2020, although a historic decline, was still within the previous bull market. It was a callback caused by a black swan event in the bull market and did not change the rhythm identification of the bull market phase.
II. Three Market State Models: From Structural Cognition to Operational Strategies
To enhance investors' ability to judge rhythms and identify strategic behaviors in bull and bear cycles, Bitcoin Investment Fund (BHF-Fund) and Foundation (BHF-Foundation) have constructed a three-stage market state model for bull markets (3 Bull Market States) for investment reference and strategy alignment:
| Stage |
English Abbreviation |
Model Code |
Judgment Attribute |
| Bull Bottom |
Bull Bottom |
BB |
Strategic Position Building Zone |
| Bull Mid |
Bull Mid |
BM |
Stable Holding and Increasing Zone |
| Bull Top |
Bull Top |
BT |
High-Level Realization Zone |
Identification boundary illustration:
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Start of bull market: The start of a bull market is when the bear market hits bottom
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Range of Bull Mid: There are different calculation methods for Bull Mid, divided into the following two categories
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Time algorithm: The start of Bull Mid is 100 days after the start of the bull market, and the end of Bull Mid is 100 days before the end of the bull market
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Indicator algorithm: Based on indicators such as Quantile/Rainbow/Puell Multiple, calculate the weighted average (range 0-3.0), and take [1,2] as the range of Bull Mid
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For the convenience of unified typesetting, this chart uses the time algorithm.
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End of bull market: The creation of the peak price of this round
III. Cycle reproducibility and black swan fault tolerance verification
Even in the face of black swan events (such as the March 12, 2020 COVID-19 crash), this model can still stably identify market structures and rhythms. Events change volatility, not structure; emotions shake confidence, while the model anchors rhythms.
Historical cycles show that:
3 Data Dependencies
The main data of the Bitcoin Bull Comparison Chart depends on Bitcoin's daily price and historical price data
3.1 Bitcoin's Daily Price
Daily closing prices are usually used for analysis. This data can be obtained from multiple cryptocurrency data providers.
4 Chart Meanings
Unlike traditional charts, the horizontal axis of the Bitcoin Bull Comparison is represented by a percentage, which means the position of the current time point in the progress of the bull market. The vertical axis is the price multiple, referring to the ratio of the current price to the price at the start of the bull market, which is used to compare the returns from buying at the beginning of the bull market in different cycles.
