Bear Comparison

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1 Introduction

The Bear Market Cycle Comparison Chart is based on the Bull-Bear Cycle Chart, used to more meticulously compare the performance of bear markets in various cycles and provide a theoretical foundation for cycle models.

2 Definition of the Bear Market Cycle Comparison Chart

I. Basic Definition of a Bear Market

Bear Market: The complete downward range from the highest point of the previous cycle to the next lowest price point

Principles for judging a bear market cycle:

Not directly linked to the halving date
Not redefined due to mid-term slumps / rebounds
Structural judgment is based solely on "clearly defined historical lows"

Example: The COVID-19 crash on March 12, 2020, although a historic decline, was still within the previous bear market. It was a callback caused by a black swan event in the bear market and did not change the rhythm identification of the bear market phase.

II. Three Market State Models: From Structural Cognition to Operational Strategies

To enhance investors' ability to judge rhythms and identify strategic behaviors in bull and bear cycles, Bitcoin Investment Fund (BHF-Fund) and Foundation (BHF-Foundation) have constructed a three-stage market state model for bear markets (3 Bear Market States) for investment reference and strategy alignment:

Stage	English Abbreviation	Model Code	Judgment Attribute
Bear Top	Bear Top	RT	Final Phase of Topping Out
Bear Mid	Bear Mid	RM	Emotional Stampede Zone
Bear Bottom	Bear Bottom	RB	Bottom Fishing Preparation Zone

Identification boundary illustration:

Start of bear market: The start of a bear market is when the bull market peaks
Range of Bear Mid: There are different calculation methods for Bear Mid, divided into the following two categories
- Time algorithm: The start of Bear Mid is 100 days after the start of the bear market, and the end of Bear Mid is 100 days before the end of the bear market
- Indicator algorithm: Based on indicators such as Quantile/Rainbow/Puell Multiple, calculate the weighted average (range 0-3.0), and take [1,2] as the range of Bear Mid
- For the convenience of unified typesetting, this chart uses the time algorithm.
End of bear market: The creation of the bottom price of this round

III. Cycle reproducibility and black swan fault tolerance verification

Even in the face of black swan events (such as the March 12, 2020 COVID-19 crash), this model can still stably identify market structures and rhythms. Events change volatility, not structure; emotions shake confidence, while the model anchors rhythms.

Historical cycles show that:

A bear market lasts an average of about 12–13 months

3 Data Dependencies

The main data of the Bitcoin Bear Comparison Chart depends on Bitcoin's daily price and historical price data

3.1 Bitcoin's Daily Price

Daily closing prices are usually used for analysis. This data can be obtained from multiple cryptocurrency data providers.

4 Chart Meanings